the rare weekend post...
All the time i see articles that talk about when some sort of tech is supposed to reach us, whether it's something simple like a holographic hard drive capable of carrying terabits of information, swarm robots that think and work and share information and energy together, or an AI as smart as you or I. one thing they seem to underestimate is the exponential growth of tech and information. Keep in mind that if you look at the rise of the robots article i linked to about AI (above), you'll see that in '99 (and this was reprinted in a recent special report on robotics somehow) they thought that it would be another 50 years before human level intelligence, while various recent estimates go anywhere from only 5 (SEED article on blue brain) to 12 years away (computerworld poll of tech experts).
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